I've got a theory...
It could be bunnies...
Oh wait. Sorry. Wrong show!
For the whole four people who read this (thanks btw) you are now going to be subjected to my rambling thoughts on the cyclical nature of... well basically everything but specifically gaming/society. The three of you who aren't Radar can go ahead and run away now, I'll understand. Radar has to read the whole damn thing though, because it's his fault I'm writing it.
As a rule I don't involve myself in politics and whatnot. However I do have a few very politically savvy friends and relatives and tend to just sort of soak up the information they shove at me on a regular basis. I learn a lot this way. One of the things I've learned is that politics goes in cycles. For a while we're very conservative. Then things swing in the other direction, until those policies no longer work for society and things swing right on back the other way.
Whilst I don't study politics, I do tend to study people. Fascinating animals, we are. And I've noticed that just as with politics, society tends to swing from one extreme to another. If you've ever been to a science museum and seen the giant pendulums that swing super slow but you can see that they do tend to move over time, you should understand.
Everything tends to end up coming full circle in the end. That isn't to say that everything always ends up staying the same. But the patterns tend to return after a while. How the hell does this apply to gaming?
Believe it or not it does. While we've evolved in the gaming world, we still tend to return to the same patterns. We started out as kids playing cowboys and indians or whatever sort of FPSish game we played when we ran around til we passed out. We got older and started playing arcade games like Pac-Man and Galaga and the fighting games (Mortal Kombat ftw!). Then we started gaming on PCs. Hello Doom and Quake and Unreal etc etc. From there we moved to MMOs. Now, even our MMOs are shifting back towards FPSishness. Only now they're somewhat evolved FPS games and our deathmatches have matured.
There's also a cyclical pattern to the way that people seem to play online games.
My personal example. EverQuest and EverQuest II tend to be my base games. Touchstones that I always play. When I played EQ, I'd stray now and then and play something new when it came out (Dark Age of Camelot!) but I'd return and apologize for having been an MMOslut and promised to once again be monogamous.
I quit EQ when I had a kid cause I spent all my time playing with him and sleeping. Then I found out that EQ2 was coming. WOOHOO! I dove back in (i cut out sleeping, cause really who needs to sleep?) and learned everything I could and eagerly waited for the beta. I even jumped back into EQ for a while to enjoy the nostalgia.
With EQ2 there also came an explosion of other MMOs (I missed SWG pre-cu and I'm terribly bitter about this!). WoW, DDO, LoTRO, TR, etc. I've tried darn near all of them at one point or another. I've missed a few here and there, whether from lack of time or money for yet another game.
The point though is that all the sampling of other games aside, I keep coming back to EQ2. Someday a game will come along that will woo me away (I know, how fickle, right?) but that is going to take a hell of a game.
There's all this speculation right now about how Age of Conan and Warhammer are going to spell the death knell of EQ2. That's a crock of shit. I fail to comprehend how people can honestly believe this. Vanguard was supposed to be the death of EQ2. And while it did have a ton of potential, it was released unfinished. It could have been a great game. But that's neither here nor there. Would it have killed EQ2? Not a chance. Because every game appeals for different reasons. That's why people keep coming back. Just like they keep going back to WoW or any of the other games on the market.
A game doesn't need ZOMGZ 10 MILLION!!!!one11eleventy subscriptions to be a success. Having a player base that can't stay away and speaking to people on a level that keeps them playing through all the growing pains and shinie new games is what makes it a success. Yeah, people will leave EQ2 for a while to try the new games. And they'll be back. Then it'll start over again with the next round of releases.
It really is about human psychology
People want to be winners; and associated with winning things. WoW players triumph the worldwide subscription numbers. EQII'ers celebrate the 'depth' of the game (winning quality instead of quantity). I can make some valid example for any game really, in about thirty seconds of official forums readings.
So the folks who have identified with AoC or WAR or CoS or any of the 'coming soon!' games potentially on the market are sure that their game will destroy the other games. They want to be on a winning team. You also see this demonstrated in folks who are long term adherents of a game, and are ready to move along. They start looking at the other games, and the promises of what might be, and the faults of their long time game start to stand out more starkly.
I don't blame them for the base psychology, they need to devalue the investment they have already made so they can hype the investment they hope to make in the next big game; but I can disagree with their findings.
These games will come out, and many people will try them. For some, they will be the right answer, and for others they won't. Will this impact the subscription of other games out there? Not in a significant manner at all. You know what will? The team making that existing game. If they continue to deliver the quality that has attracted their current customer base, a new launch means nothing.
So I'm not worried about these coming launches. I'm excited. I have two lumps of friends lining up to play Conan because I know a lot of PvP junkies (/guilty); so I have choices about who I play with; and yes -- I intend to play. I also have an active WoW sub, and funds on my Maple Story account. Oh, and yes, access to every SOE game.
My problem isn't that something new is coming out so something old must die, it's that there aren't enough minutes in the day.
So very true. I'm constantly
So very true. I'm constantly mourning the lack of time to play all the games I want to play :(
I have to say that Ship has a
I have to say that Ship has a massive point in this. Money is king. As long as the game is making money it will exist. Grimwell posted an interesting tidbit about another article that I thought was very tied to this, dealing with customer relations.
As I see it.. WoW has done a great job of reacting to the customers desires (and sometimes a bit over the edge) and Sony has listened also. It is such a fine balance between Vision Statements and Customer Satisfaction.
And if I rambled.. bite me.. I'm sick.. and not in my right head (and as most of you know, one has nothing to do with the other)
Bah, if a game is making
Bah, if a game is making money, it's a success. It doesn't matter if WoW is making more money. And as EQ1 has shown, most companies will keep the game afloat as long as it's still making money.
EQ2 will be fine.
Vanhuard was very disappointing to me. I really like DDO, but you HAVE to have a group. Be interesting to check out Conan though.
/agreed
I already thought about humanity cycles as well. Though I am not so sure if that applies for the evolution of electronic games. At least not yet. But then again I guess you were speaking about the people who play the games not about the creation of them.
Anyhoo, I agree that all that talk of a new game that will "kill all of the others and be the supreme ruler" is pretty silly. Different games offer different things to different people. People will play what they like despite the population. I left World of Warcraft for Everquest 2 because WoW felt limited for me. While Everquest 2 was the closest MMORPG I ever found to have as much flexibility and dephtness as I was looking for. Does it means I think Everquest 2 is the best game ever and everybody should play it and those who don't are just fools?
Well, yes and know. I do think Everquest 2 is the best MMORPG on the market right now. I doubt I will be moving from it anytime soon. But I also do know there are lots and lots of other people who want something else that Everquest 2 probably doesn't offer to them or not in the way they want. And that is perfectly fine.
There doesn't need to be just one MMORPG. Or one that is more successful than all the others together. There just need to be enough so that different people can have fun the way they like and it is health enough so that people can keep playing it, getting groups, finding the stuff they want in the player market, etc.
In that regards I think most MMORPGs on the market today are like that.
Oh, and about the hype. It seems to be way too common in the software industry today. Specially the game one. If you have enough money you can create enough hype for people to start talking about how it will be the next "killer app/game/whatever" and how everybody will be using it and you should change now so you aren't left behind.
It is a very silly attitude in my opinion but nothing that can be done about it.
Ok.That is enough rambling for now.